The single most-watched number in the battery industry moved again. BloombergNEF’s annual Lithium-Ion Battery Price Survey — the benchmark the whole supply chain quotes — reported in December 2025 that the volume-weighted average pack price across all segments fell to $108/kWh in 2025, an 8% drop year over year. What makes the figure remarkable is the backdrop: lithium and cobalt prices both rose through 2025, and new cobalt export quotas from the Democratic Republic of Congo tightened supply. Battery prices fell anyway. For every cell, module and pack builder, that one line reframes the demand outlook for the next three years.
The Fifteen-Year Arc to a New Floor
From roughly $1,500/kWh in 2010, pack prices have fallen more than 93% in fifteen years. The 2025 print extends a curve that looked impossibly steep a decade ago and now bends toward a floor. BNEF forecasts a further 3% decline in 2026 to about $105/kWh — a far smaller step than 2025’s 8%, and a clear signal that the “easy” deflation from Chinese overcapacity is running out. As BNEF’s Evelina Stoikou put it: “Cutthroat competition is making batteries cheaper every year. This is an important moment for the industry, as record-low battery prices create an opportunity to lower EV costs and accelerate the deployment of grid-scale storage.”
The 2025 Numbers, by Segment
The decline was not uniform. Stationary storage — overwhelmingly LFP — was the cheapest segment by a wide margin, while NMC transport packs held a premium. The table below is the survey’s segment breakdown:
| Segment / chemistry | 2025 avg pack price | Change vs 2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Global average (all segments) | $108/kWh | −8% |
| China average | $84/kWh | −13% |
| LFP packs (all segments) | $81/kWh | — |
| NMC packs (all segments) | $128/kWh | — |
| BEV packs (transport) | $99/kWh | −1% |
| Stationary storage | $70/kWh | −45% |
| Lowest observed LFP cell | $36/kWh | — |
| Lowest observed LFP pack | $50/kWh | — |
Why Prices Fell Against the Grain
Two forces did the work. First, Chinese manufacturing overcapacity: national cell capacity passed 2 TWh in 2024, roughly 60% above domestic demand, and BNEF puts total global battery manufacturing capacity at about 3.1 TWh — far beyond what the market is absorbing. That glut keeps competition, and prices, intense. China’s own pack prices fell 13% in 2025 to $84/kWh, well below the global average.
Second, the shift to LFP. LFP packs averaged $81/kWh across all segments in 2025 against $128/kWh for NMC — a gap wide enough on its own to absorb much of the metals increase. LFP now accounts for nearly half the global EV battery market (IEA) and about 80% of new stationary storage deployments. The chemistry, not the metal, is doing the heavy lifting.
The LFP Cost Gap, in Plain Terms
LFP is cheaper, thermally more stable, longer-lived, and free of nickel and cobalt supply volatility. Its energy density is lower — about 180 Wh/kg versus roughly 240 Wh/kg for NMC — but that is more than enough for mass-market EVs, fleet vehicles and, above all, stationary storage. Argonne National Laboratory’s 2025 modeling puts average U.S. pack costs near $103/kWh at 100,000-unit scale, with a trajectory from $140/kWh in 2023 toward $86/kWh by 2035. For pack builders, the takeaway is structural: the volume chemistry is large-format, prismatic, tab-terminated LFP — and the line that builds it must be cost-obsessed.
Regional Gaps and the Tariff Wall
The global average hides a wide regional spread. China’s $84/kWh is the floor; North America and Europe pay a steep premium, and a tariff wall now reshapes where capacity is stood up:
| Region | 2025 avg pack price | Premium vs China ($84/kWh) |
|---|---|---|
| China | $84/kWh | Baseline (−13% YoY) |
| North America | ~$121/kWh | +44% |
| Europe | ~$131/kWh | +56% |
| US utility-scale (installed, tariff effect) | $120–$140/kWh | US duties +56–69% on Chinese components (since Jan 2025) |
What the Tariff Wall Means for Line Builders
The duties have not reversed the deflation trend — but they have redirected where capacity is being built. Chinese makers are shifting exports to Europe with more aggressive pricing, and US, EU and Indian buyers are localizing. Every new regional Gigafactory is, in hardware terms, a fresh cluster of module, pack and end-of-line test lines. For equipment suppliers, localization is now the single biggest driver of new orders.
Four Implications for Assembly & Testing Lines
For cell, module and pack builders planning 2026–2028 capacity, the price data points to four concrete equipment implications:
- Volume follows price. Cheaper packs pull demand forward across EVs and storage; BNEF sees global BESS deployments reaching 123 GW / 360 GWh in 2026, +33% over 2025. More deployed cells means more lines — and more end-of-line test stations per line.
- LFP is the volume chemistry. With ~80% of new stationary storage on LFP, module and pack lines sized for large-format prismatic LFP with tab-style terminals are the workhorse. The process is simpler than NMC — no cobalt, stable chemistry — but cost discipline is brutal, so yield and throughput targets dominate equipment selection.
- Localization is the new build-out. Tariffs and local-content rules push capacity to the US, EU and India. Lines there must meet regional safety and data standards — GB 38031, UL 9540A, NFPA 855 (2026 edition) and the EU Battery Regulation — from day one, not as a retrofit.
- The floor is near. At $105/kWh the next cost cuts need technology shifts — silicon anodes, solid-state, new cathodes — not scale. Equipment must stay flexible enough to absorb them without a full line teardown.